Robert Fico’s victory in the recent election in Slovakia, where he campaigned to end military aid to Ukraine, reflects a growing discontent in Central Europe regarding the war with Russia. However, analysts do not anticipate a major policy change by Bratislava or Warsaw. Previous leaders in the region, which was once under Soviet rule, have been fueling nationalist sentiment in Hungary, Slovakia, and even traditionally anti-Russian Poland, with support for Ukraine being sacrificed for short-term political gains.
Concerns were raised after Fico’s win that his new government would align Slovakia with Hungary in challenging the European Union’s consensus on supporting Ukraine. However, analysts believe that there will not be a significant shift in policy towards Ukraine in Slovakia and Poland. Roger Hilton, a defense fellow at GLOBSEC, stated that the current divisions are mainly driven by short-term political gains, while the long-term security interests of the region remain rooted in NATO, with the Ukraine conflict viewed as an existential threat.
In Poland, where support for Ukraine has been the strongest, the ruling government is facing pressure from right-wing groups to adopt a tougher stance on Ukraine ahead of the upcoming elections. Recent disputes with Ukraine over grain shipments and the extension of an import ban on Ukrainian grains by Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have added to the tensions.
Slovakia’s election saw Fico’s SMER-SSD party win with 23% of the vote, followed by the liberal Progressive Slovakia with 18% and the HLAS (Voice) party, led by Fico’s former colleague Peter Pellegrini, with 14.7%. The most likely coalition is expected to be between SMER-SSD and HLAS, along with the pro-Russian nationalistic but small SNS party. This moderate coalition could have a moderating effect on Fico’s policies towards Ukraine.
Pellegrini, who supports the continuation of commercial arms supplies to Ukraine, sees it as beneficial for job creation. He is considered a significant influence on Fico’s stance towards Ukraine. Fico, a seasoned politician, is expected to be cautious in his approach to support for Ukraine or other EU issues, as Slovakia greatly benefits from EU development funds.
Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, is likely to be Fico’s ally, as Orban has also opposed the sending of weapons to Ukraine and EU sanctions against Russia. Orban has used support for Ukraine as leverage in discussions on other topics in Brussels.
A crucial moment to test Central Europe’s support for Ukraine could arise in December when the EU considers starting membership talks with Ukraine, requiring the unanimous backing of all 27 EU countries. Fico did not explicitly state whether he would oppose the start of these talks, and Orban mentioned that “very difficult questions” would need to be answered. Poland’s ruling nationalist government has expressed support for Ukraine’s membership, although relations have cooled recently.
Despite the initial divisions, it is anticipated that unity will be formed behind Ukraine once policymakers sit down for talks in Brussels. The bigger challenges lie with the U.S. election cycle and its impact on support for Ukraine. Ultimately, Slovakia and Hungary are expected to align with the European consensus, recognizing the interconnectedness of various issues within Europe.
(Writing by Krisztina Than, Additional reporting by Jan Lopatka in Prague, Editing by Angus MacSwan)
Credit: The Star : News Feed
