Argentina’s opposition is leading in the polls for the upcoming August primaries, which typically serve as a precursor to the presidential election. However, voter apathy may undermine the outcome.
Political analyst Carlos Fara predicts that the August 13 vote will see a higher abstention rate and more blank votes than any primary election since 2011.
The center-right opposition alliance Together for Change (JxC) currently holds a slight advantage over the center-left ruling coalition Union for the Homeland (UP), according to most polls. A considerably distant third is political outsider Javier Milei’s Liberty Advances party, which hopes to attract disillusioned voters.
The primaries will determine the final candidates for the October 22 elections, but different polls yield different predictions regarding the candidates who will secure a spot in the race.
Mariel Fornoni, director of the consulting firm Management & Fit, believes that JxC candidates Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, the mayor of Buenos Aires, and former security minister Patricia Bullrich are running neck and neck. However, another consultancy called Analogias projects that Bullrich will win two-thirds of the JxC vote, putting UP within striking distance of defeating the opposition with the added votes of Economy Minister Sergio Massa and his rival Juan Grabois.
Massa is seen as a likely contender in the presidential race, but the ongoing economic crisis in Argentina has given a boost to Milei, who attracts an “emotional vote.” Pollsters believe that Milei’s supporters may lean towards Bullrich, who is perceived as more right-wing, in the October election.
Nevertheless, the high level of voter apathy makes any prediction uncertain.
Mariel Fornoni stated, “There is great uncertainty. This aligns with what we are seeing in the polls. Seven out of ten people do not want to respond to surveys over the phone or in person.”
Carlos Fara added, “This climate of apathy clearly increases the volatility of some votes. It will not be a normal election from any perspective.”
(Reporting by Lucila Sigal; Additional reporting by Juan Bustamante and Reuters TV; Writing by Sarah Morland; Editing by Sandra Maler)
Credit: The Star : News Feed
