FIVE of the 10 Asean member states that share the Mekong River, namely Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos, are facing challenges with democracy. Myanmar is ruled by a military junta known for committing atrocities against its own people, Thailand’s military plays a dominant role in politics, the Hun Sen family consolidates power in Cambodia, and both Vietnam and Laos are experiencing secretive power struggles. The military junta in Myanmar is benefiting the most from the undemocratic environment in these neighboring countries. As the current chair of Asean, Indonesia has little chance of making progress in convincing Myanmar’s junta leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, to follow the five-point consensus he signed in the Asean emergency summit in Jakarta in April 2021, following the coup earlier that year.
Furthermore, four other Asean members, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines, are politically stable, economically flourishing, and have relatively functional democracies. However, Brunei is an exception as it is a resource-rich monarchy where Sultan Hasanal Bolkiah holds absolute power. These four nations are taking a tough stance on the Myanmar junta and consistently exclude them from official Asean meetings until they respect the five-point consensus as the path to restoring peace and democracy in Myanmar. Timor-Leste, which is inching closer to joining Asean, may not have a significant impact in resolving the Myanmar crisis.
Thailand is experiencing ongoing political turmoil, and the return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra after years of self-exile has further intensified the situation. Thaksin’s party nominated Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon, as the new prime minister. Despite this development ending a three-month-long political deadlock, it is unlikely that political stability will last long in Thailand, as Thaksin is expected to attempt to regain control of the country. However, the economy remains unaffected and continues to grow.
In Cambodia, the newly elected Prime Minister, Hun Manet, is expected to follow in his father’s footsteps and regard the crisis in Myanmar as an internal matter that Asean should not interfere with. His father, Hun Sen, ruled the country for 38 years and dismantled the once-powerful royal institution. A similar authoritarian regime is likely to be established under Hun Manet’s leadership. Despite Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party winning the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly, there are concerns about growing corruption and abuse of power within the party.
In Vietnam, President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigned amid accusations of corruption and abuse of power. Major decisions in Vietnamese politics are made behind closed doors, and there are reports of internal rivalries between pro-Western/foreign investment factions and party hardliners. Vietnam’s recent leadership reshuffle has seen Vo Van Thuong appointed as the new president, largely considered to be the lieutenant of Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who is behind the anti-corruption campaign. Vietnam, a friend of Myanmar’s junta, has not publicly announced its stance on the crisis.
Laos, facing high inflation and currency depreciation, saw its Prime Minister Phankham Viphavanh resign for health reasons. President Thongloun Sisoulith appointed deputy prime minister Sonexay Siphandone as the new prime minister. Unless significant changes occur in the Mekong River region, it is unlikely that Asean leaders will unite in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. The best Indonesia can do as the Asean chair is to continue excluding the junta from regional meetings, even though this approach has had minimal success in resolving the Myanmar crisis.
Credit: The Star : News Feed
