Australia Indigenous referendum opposition led by older, rural voters -poll

An opinion poll conducted by YouGov suggests that the proposed Australian constitutional referendum on Indigenous recognition is likely to be defeated. The poll, published on Wednesday, indicates strong opposition from older voters and those residing outside cities.

Early voting for the referendum, which aims to acknowledge Indigenous Australians in the constitution and establish a “Voice to Parliament” to provide them with an avenue to advise the government on matters affecting First Nations Australians, started on Monday. However, with less than two weeks left until the polls close on October 14, the opposition holds a 53% to 38% lead over the supporters of the proposal, according to the YouGov poll, which surveyed 1,563 voters. Approximately 9% of the respondents were undecided.

The poll reveals that the strongest opposition comes from rural areas and the outskirts of cities, where nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of the amendment.

The survey also highlights that more than two-thirds of those aged 65 and above are against the amendment, with 68% of them intending to vote no, while 24% are in favor.

YouGov’s Director of Polling and Academic Research, Amir Daftari, states, “The data clearly shows the contest is much closer in inner metro areas, but the Yes campaign is still struggling to move the needle across the country.”

Support for the referendum has decreased in recent months, with a poll conducted last week revealing that respondents believed the vote diverted attention from pressing issues such as the cost of living and housing. However, another poll published on Tuesday indicates a slight increase in support for the proposal, with 43% of respondents intending to vote yes and 49% planning to vote no.

The referendum debate has sparked divided opinions, as supporters argue that the Voice will bring progress for Indigenous Australians, while opponents contend that enshrining one group in the constitution would be divisive. Some individuals against the Voice view it as tokenism and toothless.

Referendums in Australia are notoriously challenging to pass, with only eight of them being approved since the country’s inception in 1901. Constitutional changes require a majority of votes nationwide and in at least four of the six states.

Reporting by Lewis Jackson; Editing by Jamie Freed