Bill Gates believes that the world will not be able to achieve the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting temperature rise to below 2°C, but he commended COP28 for making progress in addressing climate change despite geopolitical tensions.
During an interview with Bloomberg TV at the annual United Nations meeting in Dubai, Gates stated, “Climate progress is moving ahead even though we won’t meet our highest aspirations,” pointing to the record attendance and new initiatives in food and health.
He also expressed skepticism about the likelihood of keeping warming below 2°C, stating, “Keeping warming to 2°C isn’t that likely.” However, he added, “Fortunately, if you stay below 3°C, a lot of the ill effects that people have heard about don’t happen unless you really are irresponsible and let it get up to the higher range.”
A 2018 study in Lancet Planetary Health showed that a 3°C increase in temperatures from pre-industrial levels could expose up to 50 million people to temperatures that are beyond human survivability. The study also predicted an increase in flooding events, dangerous heat in African cities, and global wildfires if the warming trend continues.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperatures to well below 2 degrees, preferably to 1.5°C, in order to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. However, a recent report by the UN Environment Programme indicates that the world is projected to warm up to 2.9°C based on current country-level emissions reduction plans.
Climate scientists emphasize that there is no safe level of global warming, as the impacts are already being felt around the world, with global average temperatures having risen by 1.2°C from the pre-industrial era. This year, in particular, has seen devastating wildfires, floods, and extreme heat.
Gates mentioned nuclear fusion, nuclear fission, and green steel as potential solutions to climate change that he is optimistic about. He also highlighted the importance of meetings at COP28 for startups to connect with established players in industries that need to decarbonize, such as cement.
COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, has faced criticism for its association with the fossil fuel industry. Oil executive Sultan Al Jaber, who is overseeing the talks, argues for engaging with the industry, while others push for a faster transition to alternative energy sources.
Gates advocates for competing with fossil fuels, suggesting the removal of subsidies for the industry and the implementation of a carbon tax over time. He believes that these measures are essential for a successful transition to cleaner energy sources. – Bloomberg
