Bukele landslide shifts El Salvador to one-party state, amplifies democracy fears

In San Salvador, the re-election of President Nayib Bukele has sparked both celebration and concern among the population. Supporters of his tough stance on gangs are thrilled with the outcome, while opponents fear that the country is heading towards a one-party state. Bukele currently has the support of approximately 83% of voters, based on early vote counting. He has claimed that his party, New Ideas, is likely to win 58 out of 60 seats in the congress, even though only 5% of the votes have been counted so far.

The potential landslide win will give Bukele an unprecedented level of control over the assembly, which he has previously used to make significant changes to the country’s institutions and judicial system. Despite a constitutional ban on consecutive terms, Bukele was able to seek re-election through the reshaping of the courts.

In his victory speech, Bukele emphasized that his victory was a result of a free vote and said that the opposition has been “pulverized” due to his popular anti-gang crackdown. However, international observers, journalists, and rights groups have raised concerns about the potential authoritarian nature of his regime. The Human Rights Institute at the University of Central America (IDHUCA) director Gabriela Santos noted that the concentration of power in Bukele’s hands is worrying for the future of civil rights in El Salvador.

Despite these concerns, Bukele’s popularity remains strong, particularly among those who credit him for significantly reducing gang violence and making it safer to go out after dark. The drop in crime and emigration post-crackdown presents a dilemma for the US, which seeks to promote democracy but also control border crossings. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken congratulated Bukele while emphasizing their focus on fair trial guarantees and human rights in the efforts to curb migration.

Analysts believe that Bukele’s mass incarceration approach may not be sustainable in the long run. Nevertheless, he has pledged to continue with his hardline stance on gangs and has hinted at focusing on the country’s economy in his second term.

Concerns have been raised about Bukele potentially seeking indefinite re-election and ruling for life. The opposition parties, which have struggled to earn back public support, are facing an uphill battle. Bukele’s campaign has portrayed them as allies of the gangs, further weakening their position. The legislative assembly has largely supported Bukele’s proposals, similar to the situation in Venezuela.

Amidst these developments, opposition parties lack a clear short-term plan to counter Bukele. This has led to a closing of democratic spaces, with civil society feeling increasingly suppressed. Despite the concerns and fears, Bukele’s impressive victory reflects a significant shift in El Salvador’s political landscape.