N’DJAMENA (Reuters) – Chad is set to hold a referendum on Sunday to vote on a new constitution, but it is unlikely to bring unity to the country’s deep divisions that have led to a political and security crisis. The referendum is seen as a crucial step towards next year’s elections, which would mark a return to democratic rule after the military seized power in 2021 following the death of President Idriss Deby in a conflict with insurgents.
The proposed constitution includes provisions for autonomous communities with local assemblies and councils of traditional chiefdoms, among other changes. However, some opposition groups and rebel factions have called for a “No” vote or have announced plans to boycott the referendum. They have raised concerns about the independence of the election commission and criticized the new constitution for not addressing their demands, including federalization.
Chad has a history of instability and economic mismanagement, which has hindered its development despite being an oil-producing country. Nearly 40% of its 16 million population relies on humanitarian aid for survival. Brice Nguedmbaye Mbaimon, who leads a coalition voting “No”, argues that Chad has made little progress as a unitary state for over 50 years and believes it’s time to allow the population to form federated states and take charge of their own development.
On the other hand, Haroun Kabadi, coordinator of groups voting “Yes”, believes that the new constitution offers more independence by allowing Chadians to choose their local representatives and collect local taxes for the first time. He dismisses the calls for federalization, accusing those advocating for it of wanting to divide the country and stoke animosity between communities.
Some individuals, including former Prime Minister Albert Pahimi Padacke, have called for a boycott, alleging that the junta has too much control over the referendum process. The Africa-focused Institute for Security Studies has warned that tensions around the vote could lead to violence, similar to the unrest seen in October 2022, where scores were killed by security forces during pro-democracy protests.
One of the central concerns is that the referendum could further consolidate the power of junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby, the son of the late president, who has already extended the proposed 18-month transition to democracy. Analysts at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies have likened the junta’s tactics to those of Idriss Deby, who held onto power for three decades after coming to power by force in 1990.
Approximately 8 million Chadians are registered to vote in the referendum, and provisional results are expected to be announced on Dec. 24. Chad’s military regime is one of several juntas in West and Central Africa, where there have been eight coups since 2020, raising concerns of a democratic backslide in the region. (Writing by Alessandra Prentice; Editing by Bate Felix and Alison Williams)
