Leading a coalition government made up of 11 previously opposing parties may prove to be more challenging for Thailand’s Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin, than winning the job itself. After three months of negotiations following the election, analysts believe that Srettha’s coalition, which consists of populist and conservative parties, is likely to be unstable. The coalition was formed around the return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who led the Pheu Thai party and is currently serving a jail sentence for corruption but may receive a royal pardon.
Srettha, who previously worked as a property tycoon and was a close associate of Thaksin, acknowledged the difficulties he faces upon being appointed as prime minister. He stated, “You have to wait for the formation to be completed first and let us collectively, as a group, try to move this country forward. Then you can judge whether it’s fragile or not.”
The stability of the new government will be closely monitored by foreign investors, as political uncertainty has already caused them to withdraw $3.8 billion from Thai stocks this year. On August 24th, Thailand’s benchmark equity index rose by 0.6% and the baht gained 0.4%.
Srettha has promised to bring change to Thailand during what he referred to as a “critical juncture” for the nation. He stated that his government’s policies will focus on economic development and implementing changes at both the macro and household levels. The success or failure of Srettha’s premiership may largely depend on the composition of his ruling cabinet, which will play a crucial role in guiding Thailand’s $500 billion economy, the second-largest in Southeast Asia.
Thaksin’s return on August 22nd, just hours before Srettha secured the majority in parliament, was made possible after the Pheu Thai party terminated its previous alliance with the Move Forward party, which received the highest number of votes in the election. By aligning with conservative parties they had previously sworn not to work with, Pheu Thai effectively allowed the military-backed establishment to retain power.
Srettha faces doubts about his ability to navigate Thailand’s complex political landscape, which includes the royal family, an active military, and a significant number of pro-democracy supporters. Many of these supporters are disappointed at being outmaneuvered for the prime minister’s position. Peter Mumford, Southeast Asia practice head at the Eurasia Group, commented, “Srettha will likely be a fairly weak premier – a puppet serving both Thaksin and key establishment figures. It seems likely that Srettha’s coalition will collapse before completing a four-year parliamentary term.”
The distribution of cabinet portfolios indicates the intricate power-sharing arrangement Srettha will have to manage. According to Pheu Thai, the party will have eight ministers, the same number as the three main pro-establishment groups combined. These groups include the Bhumjaithai Party, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, who supports cannabis legalization, and the pro-military parties associated with former junta leaders Prayuth Chan-Ocha and Prawit Wongsuwan.
Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, emphasized that the establishment ultimately benefits the most from this deal due to the military’s influence and the presence of conservative elements in the coalition. However, the fact that Senate members linked to Prayuth supported Srettha while those linked to Prawit abstained suggests a divided establishment, which could lead to instability.
Further doubts arise regarding whether a coalition with differing party ideologies can effectively work together. While Pheu Thai claims that all of its partners have agreed to implement its campaign promises, disagreements may arise regarding the rewriting of the constitution and the abolition of military conscription.
The success of the governing coalition will largely depend on how they outmaneuver each other. A crucial moment is expected early next year when the Senate’s power to select prime ministers under the current constitution will expire. This constitution was established following Prayuth’s coup in 2014 to consolidate the power of the establishment. Napon suggested that this moment could be an opportunity for Thaksin or Pheu Thai to reopen negotiations with the conservatives.
“That would be a moment for Thaksin or Pheu Thai to reopen negotiations with the conservatives. Thaksin may be thinking he’s just hanging in there until he emerges with the upper hand.” – Bloomberg
Credit: The Star : News Feed
