Coming state polls leave little room for spoilers in interactive format.

The clash between the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional pact and Perikatan Nasional in the upcoming six state elections is expected to limit the opportunities for independents and other parties seeking to make an impact, according to political analysts.

In the 13th General Election (GE13) in 2013, there were 605 candidates vying for the 245 state seats. This number increased by a third to 803 candidates in GE14 in 2018.

This has led to speculation that the number of independent and smaller party candidates may decrease in the upcoming elections.

Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia, expects the number of candidates this time to be similar or slightly lower than the 803 recorded in GE14.

“Muda and independents may field a number of candidates, but the dominant parties this time around will be Pakatan-Barisan versus Perikatan.

“Some of the ‘third candidates’ can spoil or split votes but it won’t be big enough to overthrow either Barisan-Pakatan or Perikatan,” he said.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat also predicts that there will be fewer multi-cornered fights in the upcoming state elections, particularly in Malay-majority seats.

He explained that GE14 saw many three-cornered fights in Malay seats involving Pakatan, Barisan, and PAS, with an average of 3.27 candidates per constituency in the 245 state constituencies.

“This time around, with Pakatan and Barisan joining forces and no widespread participation from third parties, the number should be below 2.5 candidates per constituency, or around 600 in total,” he added.

Wong, who is the deputy head (Strategy) of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network Asia Headquarters at Sunway University, said it was tough to predict whether there would be many independents.

“However, even if 10 independent candidates were to join the fray, that most likely means that they would all lose their deposits.

“Regardless of how many contestants, most constituencies would see only two main recipients of votes,” he said, referring to the main coalitions.

In contrast, Dr Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, believes that there will be many multi-cornered contests this time around, especially in Malay-majority seats.

“There will be many independent candidates and smaller party candidates such as those from PSM and Muda.

“Malay voters are the kingmakers in this election, and with the vote split between Pakatan-Barisan and Perikatan, many ‘third candidates’ may feel they have a chance,” he said.

Dr Azmi added that it was unlikely that independents and smaller party candidates could win, but argued that several of them could be spoilers.

“There are constituencies, especially in Selangor, where the spoilt or split votes that go to the independent candidates could determine who wins between Pakatan-Barisan and Perikatan,” he said.