Israel values its diplomatic relations with the United States as much as Saudi Arabia does. Ron Dermer, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s confidante and Strategic Affairs Minister, recently visited Washington DC for talks with senior officials, including Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden’s national security advisor. Netanyahu had previously spoken to Biden about wanting a security treaty with the US, focused on deterring Iran, as part of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This demand from Israel complicates Biden’s efforts to formalize ties between the two nations.
Saudi Arabia also places a high value on establishing diplomatic relations that serve its security and geopolitical interests. The kingdom requires security arrangements with the US, support for its peaceful nuclear program, and access to advanced US weaponry. Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is also a precondition. Like Israel, Saudi Arabia desires a formalized security agreement, although it may not explicitly target Iran like Israel’s request. Following the China-mediated agreement to reestablish relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia is likely to be more cautious.
The reestablishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as recent reconciliations between various Middle Eastern states, has reduced regional tensions. Ministerial visits, reopened diplomatic missions, and discussions on security and economic cooperation have taken place between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Moreover, Iran has refrained from attacking Gulf state ships and instead targeted US and Israel-related vessels. An informal agreement between the US and Iran, involving a prisoner swap and the release of frozen Iranian funds, could prevent Iran from attacking US shipping.
However, Netanyahu insists on the complete termination of Iran’s nuclear program. This contrasts with the US position, which is not to allow Iran to possess a “fielded” nuclear weapon. Israel and Saudi Arabia have similar concerns regarding Iran, but Israel is less willing to engage with the current Iranian regime than Saudi Arabia is.
Saudi-Iran relations depend on policies pursued by Riyadh, Tehran, and Washington DC. Netanyahu sees establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia as a significant achievement. To achieve this, Israel has allowed the kingdom to enrich uranium for research purposes. Netanyahu has also hinted at potential gestures towards Palestinians if a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia requires it, although it remains to be seen if his coalition would support such gestures.
The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s first ambassador to the Palestinians highlights the challenges Netanyahu faces in bridging the gap between Israel and Saudi Arabia’s stances on Jerusalem. Israel views Jerusalem as its capital, while the Palestinians see the east of the city as their future capital. As custodian of Islam’s holiest cities, Saudi Arabia may find it difficult to make concessions on Jerusalem.
Netanyahu’s demand for an anti-Iran security deal with the US raises questions about his intentions. Such a deal would enhance Israel’s position vis-a-vis Iran and potentially complicate US-Saudi security arrangements. Israel has the potential to disrupt or contribute constructively to the situation, depending on Netanyahu’s political interests.
Dr James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
Credit: The Star : News Feed
