CARACAS (Reuters) – A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Venezuela this year, marking the first such event since 2018. However, the opposition is facing challenges in identifying a unity candidate capable of challenging President Nicolas Maduro, as several potential candidates have either been disqualified from running or hindered from registering.
WHEN IS THE ELECTION?
The presidential election in Venezuela is set to be held on July 28, with a simple majority-wins voting system in place.
WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
President Nicolas Maduro, representing the Socialist Party and holding office since 2013, has announced his intention to run for another six-year term. His administration has been subjected to U.S. sanctions and has overseen a significant economic and social decline in the country.
Despite two opposition groups registering candidates, it remains uncertain if both contenders will remain on the ballot, or whether they will be able to gather substantial support.
Additionally, ten other minor candidates, perceived to be aligned with the government by the opposition, have also registered for the election.
WHO ARE THE POSSIBLE OPPOSITION CANDIDATES?
The opposition conducted a multi-party primary in 2023 to select a candidate to challenge Maduro in the upcoming election.
An electoral agreement signed with the government in October guaranteed the opposition’s right to choose its candidate, resulting in the relaxation of U.S. oil sanctions.
However, numerous prominent opposition figures, including former presidential contender Henrique Capriles, have been banned from seeking office by the country’s controller general on what the opposition considers questionable grounds. Capriles withdrew from the primary before its commencement last year.
Maria Corina Machado, a 56-year-old industrial engineer advocating for the privatization of the state oil company PDVSA, emerged victorious in the October primary with 93% of the vote, despite facing a ban.
Although she appealed the ban, the Supreme Court upheld it in January based on allegations of supporting sanctions and involvement in corruption, allegations that Machado denies.
In response to this decision, the U.S. reinstated some sanctions and warned of the reintroduction of oil restrictions in April unless Machado is allowed to run.
Despite the arrest of several allies and activists, widely seen as a government response to declining support for Maduro, Machado continued her campaign.
Pressure from within the opposition led Machado to name academic Corina Yoris as an alternative candidate, but Yoris failed to register on the electoral council’s online system by the March 25 deadline.
WHO WAS ABLE TO REGISTER?
Two opposition factions from the coalition supporting Machado registered alternative candidates just before the deadline.
The Democratic Unity group listed Edmundo Gonzalez, a former ambassador, as a placeholder for a potential substitute, according to sources.
On the other hand, the A New Time party registered Manuel Rosales, the governor of Zulia province.
Although some within the opposition suggest that Rosales has grown too close to the ruling party during his governorship, he stated that he registered to ensure the presence of an opposition candidate and prevent absenteeism.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Substitute candidates can be designated until April 20, allowing the opposition several weeks for internal deliberations on whether to support Rosales, Gonzalez, or select other substitutes.
When asked about the possibility of forming an alliance with Rosales, Machado stated she is making decisions “day by day,” asserting that Yoris remains the coalition’s candidate.
Expressing his willingness to yield his position to a unity candidate if chosen by the opposition, Rosales indicated on Tuesday his openness to such a scenario.
Concerns have been raised within the opposition about the potential for any candidate or substitute to face a ban on holding public office before the July 28 election.
WHAT DOES POLLING PREDICT?
Several opinion polls have forecasted that Machado could secure at least 50% of the votes, while Maduro, a 61-year-old former bus driver, may receive around 20%.
It is uncertain if any other opposition figure could garner as much support as Machado, particularly if she does not fully endorse them.
(Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb, Editing by Rosalba O’Brien)
