Officials and experts around the world are trying to independently verify North Korea’s recent claim that it successfully launched its first spy satellite, with South Korea asserting that Russia likely provided assistance in the effort.
North Korea’s late-night launch on Tuesday seems to have overcome previous technical problems that led to two failed attempts with the new Chollima-1 rocket, both resulting in the rocket plunging into the sea.
However, what remains uncertain is whether the reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 is operational in orbit, and whether the North received any outside help.
It may take some time to determine the satellite’s operational orbit, signal transmissions, and capabilities, analysts have said.
To evaluate the launch’s success, it is crucial to not only determine if the projectile entered orbit but also to verify its reconnaissance capabilities, including taking pictures with optical cameras and transmitting them to the satellite center, said Hong Min, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
North Korea has not shown imagery of the satellite, but experts believe it is likely to be a relatively small, low-resolution, optical satellite that could be useful for identifying things such as large troop movements.
To launch a more-capable satellite, North Korea will likely need a larger rocket, which is presumably in development.
South Korea has suggested that Russia may have helped North Korea overcome technical hurdles with the Chollima-1 rocket, but experts are skeptical, saying it is too early for North Korea to have integrated any assistance provided by Russia in the last two months.
However, while it would have been impossible for the North to rebuild a satellite with Russian technology or hardware assistance within that time, Russian support could still be valuable in improving the satellite’s capabilities or resolving combustion instability, experts said.
The United States and its allies have labeled North Korea’s satellite tests as violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which prohibit technology development applicable to North Korea’s ballistic missile programs.
While the Chollima-1 appears to use engines developed for Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, experts have noted that there are design differences between the two, indicating that this launch seems to be specifically for a space launch vehicle rather than an ICBM.
(Reporting by Hyun Young Yi, Hyonhee Shin, Ju-min Park, and Josh Smith; Writing by Josh Smith)
