JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia is set to hold a significant election on Wednesday, featuring a race to succeed President Joko Widodo. The election will involve nearly 259,000 candidates competing for 20,600 positions across the archipelago of 17,000 islands, making it the world’s largest single-day election. The focus is primarily on the presidency and the impact on Widodo’s ambitious agenda after leading one of Asia’s largest and fastest-growing major economies for a decade.
The main contenders in the presidential race are Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, and Prabowo Subianto. Defense Minister Prabowo is running for the third time after losing to Widodo twice. Widodo is tacitly supporting Prabowo, who is expected to continue his legacy, including having his son as Prabowo’s running mate.
Widodo, who cannot run again, has not explicitly endorsed a candidate, yet his implied support has boosted Prabowo’s popularity. Surveys indicate that Prabowo leads the polls and is projected to win the majority of votes without a second round, with support ranging from 51.8% to 51.9%, leaving Anies and Ganjar far behind.
“Jokowi as the decisive factor has been proven by the rising popularity of Prabowo,” said Arya Fernandes of Indonesia’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, other factors beyond Jokowi’s influence, such as voter turnout, will also play a crucial role in the election.
The election results will be closely monitored by investors interested in the future stewardship of Indonesia’s economy, which is positioned as a future destination for multinational firms in the global electric vehicle supply chain. Undecided voters could be critical in forcing a runoff between the top two finishers in June, potentially changing the dynamic of the race.
Anies has focused his campaign on implementing change and preserving democratic reforms achieved since the end of Suharto’s authoritarian rule. On the other hand, Ganjar, who is part of Jokowi’s ruling party, aims to continue the president’s policies. However, without Jokowi’s endorsement, Ganjar faces a challenging competition against Prabowo, who shares a similar agenda.
Prabowo, 72, has successfully transformed his image from a fiery-tempered nationalist and military hard man to a more gentle figure, attracting a large youth following on social media. However, Jokowi’s alleged interference in allowing his son to contest the vice presidency has resulted in criticism and accusations of overreaching, deviating from the neutrality of previous presidents. Despite this, Jokowi’s strategy may still pay off, as some analysts view it as a maneuver to retain influence after leaving office.
According to Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a politics analyst at the National Agency for Research and Innovation, the decisive factor in the election will be the candidates’ promises and their impact, while populist pledges could heavily influence the electorate. (Reporting by Ananda Teresia and Stanley Widianto; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Nick Macfie)
