Likely La Nina return ahead stokes farmer worries in Argentina

In Buenos Aires, the Rosario grains exchange issued a warning on Wednesday about the potential impact of a looming strong La Nina event on grains farmers in Argentina. La Nina typically brings dry weather and decreased rainfall to the region, which could negatively affect the development of wheat crops and the planting of corn and soybeans in the upcoming 2024/25 season.

Argentina, a major global grains exporter, has been experiencing the 2023/24 campaign and the recent emergence from a series of consecutive La Nina years that severely affected the 2022/23 harvest. The exchange highlighted a 77% probability of a La Nina event occurring in October, based on data from international organizations, describing the situation as concerning.

According to the exchange, the anticipated La Nina event is expected to be particularly strong, with a level of cooling not seen in the last 25 years. This cooling is attributed to an increase in equatorial trade winds associated with La Nina, leading to a cooling of the Pacific Ocean at the Equator.

The exchange drew parallels to a similar cooling period observed at the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008, a time when Argentina faced a severe drought during the 2008/09 campaign, resulting in significant crop losses similar to those seen in the previous year.

Currently, soy and corn crops in Argentina are in the growth stages and have benefited from ample rainfall due to the ongoing El Nino phenomenon, which is the opposite of La Nina. The Rosario exchange projects the 2023/24 soybean harvest at 49.5 million tons and the corn crop at 57 million tons.

Should the anticipated strong La Nina event materialize, it could pose challenges for farmers who may have to contend with dry conditions that could hinder crop development and planting activities. This scenario underscores the importance of monitoring and preparing for potential weather impacts on agricultural production in Argentina.

Farmers and stakeholders in the grains sector will need to closely follow updates on the progression of La Nina and its potential implications for the agricultural landscape in the coming months. The exchange’s warning serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of weather patterns and the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and safeguard yields.

As Argentina navigates the challenges posed by changing climate conditions, the resilience and adaptability of its agricultural sector will be tested once again, highlighting the importance of ongoing research and development efforts to enhance climate resilience and sustainability in agriculture.

With preparations underway for the upcoming 2024/25 season, farmers in Argentina are bracing themselves for the potential impact of a strong La Nina event, as they seek to protect their crops and livelihoods amidst the uncertainties brought about by changing weather patterns.

As the country prepares to face the challenges posed by La Nina, collaboration between stakeholders, government support, and proactive measures will be crucial in helping farmers navigate the potential impacts and ensure the continued productivity and resilience of Argentina’s grains sector.