The race for Mexico’s presidential election on June 2, 2024, is heating up, with ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum holding a significant lead over her main challenger, according to a recent opinion poll by polling firm Parametria. Sheinbaum, from the leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), has 52% support, while Xochitl Galvez, candidate of a right-left alliance of three parties, is trailing with 25%.
In a prior survey, Sheinbaum had 55% support, while Galvez had 20%. If either candidate wins, they would become Mexico’s first female president.
The survey also showed Samuel Garcia of the opposition center-left Citizens’ Movement (MC) with 10% support, and 13% of respondents expressing no preference.
Francisco Abundis, head of Parametria, attributed the slight reduction in Sheinbaum’s lead to a boost in support following MORENA’s primary process in September. Despite this, Abundis noted that Sheinbaum still maintains a significant lead and could potentially secure an absolute majority in Congress.
Sheinbaum is supported by Mexico’s popular president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose approval ratings consistently hover around 60% or more. However, Lopez Obrador cannot run for re-election due to Mexican law limiting presidents to a single six-year term.
The next president will likely face pressure to address widespread gang violence and implement policies to leverage a growing trend among businesses to move industrial supply chains to North America from Asia, known as nearshoring.
Parametria’s survey, conducted through October and November with 1,600 participants, has a margin of error between 2.4 and 3.5 percentage points.
(Reporting by Dave Graham in Mexico City; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
