Mexico's ruling party presidential hopeful holds 16-point lead – poll

A recent poll released on Monday revealed that the presidential candidate from Mexico’s ruling leftist party, MORENA, has the support of 48% of voters. This is a 16-point lead compared to the main opposition coalition hopeful, approximately four months before the upcoming election. However, support for Claudia Sheinbaum, MORENA’s candidate, has dipped 6 points from the previous survey conducted by newspaper El Financiero.

On the other hand, her main opponent, Xochitl Galvez, who is representing a three-party coalition, has seen an increase in support to 32%, up by 2 points from the previous December survey. Meanwhile, a third candidate from a smaller opposition party, Jorge Alvarez, has seen an increase in support to 10% from 7% last month, with another 10% of voters remaining undecided.

Mexican voters are scheduled to head to the polls on June 2 to select a successor to the popular current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is limited to one six-year term by law. Additionally, there are many other elected positions across the country that will also be up for grabs.

It is worth noting that if Sheinbaum or Galvez were to win, Mexico would see its first woman president. The former is the former mayor of the capital, while the latter is a senator who has stepped down to run for the presidency.

The poll also revealed that MORENA is favored by 40% of voter intentions for the lower chamber of Congress, which will also be up for election, while the three main opposition parties – the conservative PAN, centrist PRI and leftist PRD – would win an accumulated 31%.

It is important to remember that polls in Mexico have a checkered record of predicting election results and have diverged significantly from final results in past elections. The El Financiero survey polled 1,000 adults via phone calls, both landlines and mobile numbers, on Jan. 12-13 and Jan 26-27, with a margin of error of 3.1%.

(Reporting by Raul Cortes Fernandez; Writing by David Alire; Editing by Steven Grattan and Bernadette Baum)