Mexico's Sheinbaum grows lead in presidency race ahead of decision-poll

The latest opinion poll has shown that former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum has extended her lead in the race to become the ruling party candidate in the upcoming presidential election in June. The survey, conducted by newspaper Reforma from August 18 to 23 and involving 1,000 adults, indicated that Sheinbaum’s support within the ruling leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) has increased from 31% in a previous poll in May to 37%.

Meanwhile, support for Sheinbaum’s closest rival in the MORENA contest, ex-Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, has declined from 26% to 22% during the same period, as indicated by the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The MORENA party will be conducting national polling this week to determine the winner, with the announcement to be made on September 6.

Regarding the presidential candidacy of the opposition alliance, the poll revealed that Senator Xochitl Galvez had the best performance against the leading contenders from MORENA, followed closely by Senator Beatriz Paredes. The opposition alliance, consisting of the center-right National Action Party (PAN), the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), is set to announce their presidential candidate on Sunday.

Senator Galvez, representing the PAN in the Senate, is known for her spirited and unconventional approach to politics, providing a boost to the struggling opposition. On the other hand, Paredes is an experienced political figure and former chair of the PRI, which dominated Mexican politics in the 20th Century.

Opinion polls consistently show that MORENA is the most popular party, largely due to the strong approval ratings of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is ineligible to run for re-election. Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term by law.

However, the opposition faces an obstacle in the form of the center-left Citizen’s Movement (MC), which has yet to decide whether to join the alliance or run independently.

According to the Reforma poll, in a three-way match-up, Sheinbaum is projected to secure 44% of the vote, with Galvez receiving 27% and Samuel Garcia, the MC governor of Nuevo Leon state, receiving 12%. If Paredes becomes the candidate, she is expected to receive 25% of the votes, with Sheinbaum at 46% and Garcia at 11%.

Ebrard was also shown to comfortably win against both women, although by slightly smaller margins.

(Reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Marguerita Choy)