Milei leads polls in Argentina election after primary shock

Argentina’s pollsters were surprised by the victory of libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the presidential primary in August. Now, they predict Milei will secure first place in the general election on October 22, surpassing ruling party economy chief Sergio Massa.

Milei, an economist and former TV commentator, has shocked the political establishment with his outspoken and sometimes profanity-laden criticisms of his opponents. He has also pledged to close the central bank, reduce the size of the government, and implement dollarization of the economy.

The most recent poll by consulting firm Analogias shows Milei with 31.1% of the vote, ahead of Massa with 28.1%, while right-wing former security minister Patricia Bullrich stands at 21.2%. This outcome is a blow to the main conservative opposition, which was previously favored to win.

A second poll conducted by Opinaia gives Milei 35% of the vote, with Massa at 25% and Bullrich at 23%. The polls indicate that Milei has stronger support among men, young voters, and lower-income groups.

“The result of the primaries was shocking, and the result of the general election will be shocking regardless of its outcome,” said Marina Acosta, the communication director at Analogias, noting that the race is infused with political novelty.

The polls suggest that the election will likely go to a second round, which would be held in November. For a candidate to win outright in the first round, they need either 45% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10-point lead.

Milei, who gained notoriety as a provocative TV commentator, has struck a chord with frustrated Argentine voters grappling with 113% inflation, a financially strained government, a struggling economy, and high poverty rates.

Massa, a member of the ruling center-left Peronist coalition, currently appears to be Milei’s closest competitor, offering two distinct economic models for the troubled country.

“Milei and Massa aim to be polar opposites of each other,” said political analyst Julio Burdman from Observatorio Electoral. “They are successfully capitalizing on this, which enables them both to gain support.”

However, it is important to note that Argentina’s pollsters have been inaccurate in predicting primary votes in the past and misjudged the 2019 general election. Consequently, the final result may once again come as a surprise.

(Reporting by Nicolas Misculin; Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Bill Berkrot)