DAKAR (Reuters) – The recent coup in Niger, led by Abdourahmane Tiani, cited persistent insecurity as the reason for overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum. However, previously unreported data on attacks and casualties in Niger shows that security was actually improving under Bazoum’s government, with help from French and U.S. forces.
Experts are concerned that the coup could have serious consequences for the security and stability of the region. In neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, violence has increased since their respective coups, leading to a rise in the activities of extremist groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State. This has resulted in thousands of deaths and displaced millions of people.
Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, warns that the coup in Niger will benefit jihadist groups, as the stability provided by international forces in the capital city has been disrupted. He predicts that the situation will deteriorate.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) data reveals a decrease in violent incidents in Niger during the first half of 2023, compared to the previous six months. Incidents involving attacks on civilians also dropped by half during this period, indicating improvements in the country’s security situation.
In contrast, Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which experienced coups, have seen a sharp increase in deaths from violent incidents. Deaths in Mali more than doubled last year, while Burkina Faso witnessed an 80% rise in deaths in 2022, with numbers surpassing 5,000 this year.
There are concerns that the progress made in Niger could now be reversed, as Boko Haram insurgents from Nigeria and jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State remain active in the country. The United Nations special envoy for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonardo Santos Simao, hopes for a peaceful resolution that would reinstate Bazoum. However, if the situation does not improve, he warns of an increase in terrorism in the region.
Niger, unlike Mali and Burkina Faso, has received support from Western countries such as France and the U.S. who have provided troops and intelligence. However, the U.S. has threatened to suspend cooperation, France has reduced financial support, and the European Union has suspended security aid in response to the coup.
Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, warns that if the coup is successful, Western military cooperation with Niger may cease, leading to potential fragmentation within the Niger Army and a decline in their operations.
Given the precarious security situation in the region, the coup in Niger has significant implications for the fight against extremist groups and the overall stability of West Africa’s Sahel region.
(Reporting by Edward McAllister; Additional reporting by Michelle Nichols in New York; Editing by Alexandra Zavis and Giles Elgood)
Credit: The Star : News Feed
