ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistan is gearing up for an election on Thursday that has been marked by increased militant attacks, economic turmoil, and political division, leading analysts to believe that no clear winner will emerge.
The main showdown is expected to be between candidates supported by the jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was successful in the previous national election, and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, who is considered the favorite.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 35-year-old son of former premier Benazir Bhutto, has also launched an aggressive campaign in an attempt to secure the top office.
Analysts have suggested that there may be no clear winner, but Pakistan’s influential generals may play a role. Pakistan’s military has had a dominant presence in the country’s 76 years of independence, whether through direct or indirect means. However, in recent years, the military has maintained that it does not interfere in politics.
“The deciding factor is which side the powerful military and its security agencies are on,” said Abbas Nasir, a columnist. “Only a huge turnout in favor of PTI can change its fortunes.”
Khan believes that the military is behind a crackdown on his party, while analysts and opponents argue that Sharif is being supported by the generals.
Since the last election in 2018, the two former prime ministers have switched places: Khan was perceived to be backed by the military, while Sharif was in jail on corruption charges.
“Historically, engineered electoral exercises have not produced stability,” Nasir stated. “Economic challenges are so serious, grave, and the solutions so very painful that I am unsure how anyone who comes to power will steady the ship.”
If the election does not result in a clear majority, as analysts are predicting, addressing multiple challenges will be difficult – particularly seeking a new bailout program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the current one expires in March.
Unofficial first results are expected a few hours after voting closes at 5 p.m. (1200 GMT), and a clearer picture is likely to emerge early on Friday.
Smaller political parties could play a crucial role in the formation of a government that will need 169 seats in the 336-member National Assembly. Voters directly elect 266 members while there are 70 reserved seats – 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims – allotted according to the number of seats won by each party.
Independents, many of whom are being backed by Khan, are free to join any party if they win, which could sway the outcome after the vote. Khan has stated that his candidates will not support Sharif or Bhutto Zardari.
The elections also take place under the looming threat of increasing militant attacks. On the eve of the election, two blasts in election offices killed 26 people in the southwestern province of Balochistan.
The country is on high alert, with the military deployed at polling stations. Tens of thousands of troops and paramilitary soldiers have been placed on duty across the country. Pakistan also announced the closure of its borders with Iran and Afghanistan for the day for security purposes.
(Reporting by Asif Shahzad and Gibran Peshimam; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
