Pakistan’s former prime minister Nawaz Sharif is returning to his home country after four years of self-imposed exile in London. His aim is to regain support for his political party in the upcoming general election, which is scheduled to be held in three months. As Sharif makes his return, his main rival Imran Khan is currently in jail, but still maintains popularity across Pakistan following his removal as prime minister in 2022. The Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute Director, Michael Kugelman, notes that Sharif will need to reenergize his support base, as his party’s popularity has suffered due to Khan’s large vote bank.
Sharif, who was overthrown in a coup in 1999, is making his first visit to Pakistan since leaving for London in 2019. He had been serving a 14-year prison sentence after being found guilty in two corruption cases, but was allowed to travel abroad temporarily for medical treatment. Although his convictions are still in effect in Pakistan, a court ruling on Thursday prevents authorities from arresting Sharif until October 24 when he is scheduled to appear in court. His lawyer has stated that he will challenge the convictions.
Due to his convictions, Sharif is unable to run for election or hold public office, despite his party’s intentions of nominating him for a fourth term as prime minister. Similarly, Khan is also disqualified from the elections due to a conviction in August, which he has appealed against.
Sharif, 73, believes he was overthrown due to conflict with the military, which holds significant power in Pakistan. He alleges that the military supported Khan in the 2018 general election, a claim that both Khan and the military deny. However, disagreements between Khan and the military arose in 2022, providing Sharif with some political space. The military maintains that it does not interfere in politics. Kugelman suggests that Sharif will face a challenging road ahead once the initial excitement of his return subsides.
During his exile, Sharif reportedly played a significant role in Khan’s removal from office and the establishment of a coalition government led by his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif. Khan launched a vigorous campaign against his removal, garnering substantial public support amid a crippling economic crisis that resulted in record inflation and currency depreciation. Khan’s resistance to stringent IMF reforms further boosted his popularity.
Sharif’s previous governance was associated with economic growth and development policies. When he was ousted in 2017, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate stood at 5.8% and inflation was around 4%. However, in September, inflation rose to over 31% year-on-year, and the projected growth rate for this financial year is less than 2%. Analyst Ayesha Siddiqa believes that the economy will be at the forefront of Sharif’s campaign, stating that he will need a more robust team to handle economic matters. Siddiqa emphasizes that Sharif’s primary task is to erase Khan’s influence from the public’s mind.
Sharif’s return has initiated the start of campaigning for the general elections, scheduled for the final week of January. A banner at a rally in Lahore on Saturday read, “Nawaz Sharif will revive the economy yet again.”
Reporting by Asif Shahzad; Editing by Kim Coghill
