Pakistan’s three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is set to return home after four years of self-imposed exile in London to begin his party campaign for the upcoming general election. The 73-year-old politician will lead a rally in Lahore after flying from Dubai with around 194 people from his party and media organizations. Sharif has not been in Pakistan since 2019 when he left for London for medical treatment while serving a 14-year prison sentence for corruption. His convictions are still valid, but he is protected from arrest until his court appearance on Tuesday. Although he cannot run for election or hold public office due to his convictions, Sharif’s legal team plans to appeal and his party aims for him to become prime minister for the fourth time.
Sharif’s main challenge will be regaining his support base from his primary rival Imran Khan, who, despite being in jail, remains popular following his removal from the premiership. Khan is also disqualified from the elections due to a graft conviction in August, which he has appealed. Sharif’s return comes at a time when Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation with 241 million people, is facing its worst economic crisis. During his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif’s 16-month rule, the economic situation worsened following Khan’s ousting.
When Nawaz Sharif was removed as premier in 2017, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate was 5.8% and inflation was around 4%. However, current inflation rates have surpassed 31% year-on-year, and the projected growth for this financial year is less than 2%. Many Pakistanis are struggling with rising living costs after Shehbaz Sharif’s government had to agree to harsh fiscal adjustments to resume IMF funding, which was suspended due to Khan’s actions in office.
Nawaz Sharif claims that he was ousted from government due to his falling out with top generals in the military, which plays a significant role in Pakistani politics. He alleges that the military supported Khan in the 2018 general election, although Khan and the military deny this. However, relations between Khan and the military soured in 2022, providing Sharif with some political space. The military denies interfering in politics.
“An evergreen rule about Pakistani politics is that your chances of taking power are always greater when you’re in the good books of the army,” said Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Center. “Over his long political career, Sharif’s relationship with the military brass has blown hot and cold. It’s now in a relatively cordial phase, and he stands to benefit politically.”
Reporting by Asif Shahzad; Editing by Stephen Coates
