Scotland’s leader Humza Yousaf is optimistic that independence will be achieved within the next decade, despite his governing party experiencing a decline in support due to internal conflicts and scandals. The Scottish National Party, which has been the dominant political party in Scotland for almost twenty years and advocates for independence, has been affected by infighting, voter fatigue, and the arrest of former leader Nicola Sturgeon. In a recent parliamentary election, the Labour Party replaced the SNP, suggesting that many SNP politicians may lose their seats in the next election. Additionally, a member of the SNP defected to the Conservative Party due to allegations of bullying.
Yousaf acknowledged the challenges the party has faced in recent months but highlighted that the SNP continues to be the leading opposition party, as indicated by various opinion polls. In the 2019 election, the SNP won 48 out of 59 seats, making it one of the most influential parties in western Europe. However, a recent YouGov poll revealed that the SNP’s support in Scotland is now only two percentage points ahead of Labour, which won just one seat in 2019.
Despite the decline in SNP support, Yousaf expressed confidence in Scotland’s path towards independence. While the SNP’s popularity has dipped, polls show that the country remains divided on the issue of independence. Yousaf firmly believes that an independent Scotland is inevitable, stating, “without a shadow of a doubt. I would hope it will be well within 10 years.”
In the 2014 referendum, Scottish voters rejected ending the 300-year-old union with England by a margin of 55% to 45%. However, proponents of independence argue that the 2016 vote to leave the European Union, which was opposed by a majority of Scottish voters, has shifted the landscape. Under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was widely unpopular in Scotland, pro-independence sentiment grew stronger.
Yousaf emphasized the need to present a positive vision of an independent Scotland, including enhanced worker protections and initiatives to address poverty. Merely criticizing the government in London, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, would have limited impact. Yousaf also believes that maintaining consistent support for independence is crucial for convincing the Westminster government to agree to a second referendum.
However, the British Supreme Court ruled last year that the Scottish government cannot hold a second referendum on independence without approval from the British parliament. Yousaf stated that if the SNP secures a majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats in the upcoming national election, which is expected next year, it would provide a mandate to negotiate a new vote. Pro-UK parties have rejected this stance.
Yousaf stressed the importance of creating political conditions that make it impossible for Westminster parties to disregard Scotland’s voice, stating that the independence cause is directly linked to the success of the SNP. The future battle lies in persuading the Westminster government to approve a second referendum.
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill, Editing by Kate Holton and Ed Osmond)
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