COPENHAGEN (Reuters) – Nordic and Baltic seismologists have reported the detection of blast-like waves following a gas pipeline rupture in the Baltic Sea. However, the data collected is not conclusive enough to determine if explosives were involved.
The authorities in Finland and Estonia, whose state-run companies own and operate the Balticconnector pipeline, have stated that the cause of the damage appears to be a “mechanical force” and that it might be a deliberate act.
NORSAR, the Norwegian seismology institute, analyzed the data from Finland and identified a “probable explosion” near the pipeline on Sunday at 0120 EET (2220 GMT Saturday), which corresponds to the statement by operator Gasgrid that pressure dropped before 0200 EET.
The seismologists explained that signals from explosions tend to differ from those emitted by earthquakes.
CEO Anne Strommen Lycke of NORSAR stated, “We know that it wasn’t an earthquake and we know there was an explosion, but what actually caused the explosion is something that needs to be investigated further.”
She added, “We have seen speculation about whether a ship could have dragged the pipeline, causing a hole and subsequent explosion, but it is too early to determine.”
Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation announced that external marks were discovered on the seabed next to the pipeline, and they are currently examining vessel movements, suggesting anchor damage as a possible explanation.
The agency indicated that while mechanical damage seems to be the most plausible cause, an explosion has not been ruled out.
The seismic signal detected had a magnitude of approximately 1, significantly weaker than minor earthquakes or the major explosions that occurred last year, causing damage to the larger Nord Stream gas pipelines, which had a magnitude of 2.3, according to NORSAR.
Despite the challenging analysis due to stormy weather in the Gulf of Finland, the seismologists were able to separate the seismic waves from the background noise.
“The seismic signal we are observing originates in the Gulf of Finland at this time and has certain characteristics that make it probable or likely to be a blast,” said Bjorn Lund, a seismologist at Sweden’s University of Uppsala.
Seismologist Jari Kortstrom from the University of Helsinki stated that the seismic data “might be an explosion,” while Estonian seismologist Heidi Soosalu believes the signals likely indicate a “man-made event.”
In 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea were damaged by explosions, determined to be deliberate acts of sabotage by authorities.
NORSAR mentioned that Sunday’s seismic signal was probably located less than five kilometers from Nord Stream.
“Perhaps we were fortunate that it did not cause further damage to the Nord Stream pipelines,” expressed NORSAR CEO Lycke.
(Reporting by Johannes Birkebaek, Louise Breusch Rasmussen, and Ilze Filks, editing by Terje Solsvik)
