The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a right-wing political party, is expected to strengthen its position as the leading force in Switzerland’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Greens are projected to be the biggest losers, despite climate change remaining a prominent issue for voters.
A recent poll by the Sotomo research institute revealed that climate change was considered an important policy concern by 36% of respondents, ranking second only to health insurance premiums, which symbolize the cost of living pressures.
However, despite the significance of climate change, there has been a shift towards right-wing politics and a reversal of the “green wave” witnessed in the 2019 elections. According to the poll, the Greens are predicted to lose 3.5 percentage points, resulting in a 9.7% share, while the SVP is expected to gain 2.5 points, reaching 28.1% of the vote.
Although the election results are unlikely to significantly alter the composition of Switzerland’s government, the Federal Council, where seven cabinet positions are divided among the top four parties, there may be a change in the tone and focus of the political debate, according to Reto Foellmi, an economics professor at the University of St. Gallen.
Foellmi suggests that there will be a reduction in the urgency surrounding climate change policies, while discussions on migration may become more stringent. “On climate change, the government and the parliament will take the foot off the gas … and with migration the tone will get harder,” he said.
As for the other political parties, the Social Democrats are expected to solidify their position as the second-largest party with 18.3% of the vote, while the Liberals and the centrist Mitte party, both polling at around 14%, will compete for the third spot.
According to political analyst Michael Hermann from Sotomo, the decline in support for the Greens may be attributed to public weariness of their agenda. “The issue is too big for a small country, that’s what some people think,” he explained.
Delphine Klopfenstein Broggini, a Green Party candidate for parliament’s upper house, acknowledged the influence of geopolitical tensions on voters’ decisions, stating, “International issues create an atmosphere of fear and some parties seize the opportunity.”
Against this background, the SVP’s emphasis on restricting migration and capping Switzerland’s population at 10 million, currently standing at 8.7 million, has resonated with voters, Hermann noted.
Celine Amaudruz, an SVP upper house candidate, attributed the party’s success to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, stating that these events have validated their focus on security. She said, “We are credible because we don’t change our point of view,” also emphasizing that the Greens are facing backlash for their perceived lack of response to controversial actions by radical climate activists.
One surprising omission from the campaign, as noted by Hermann, is the lack of discussion around Credit Suisse’s collapse and subsequent rescue in March of this year. Despite the issue being highly emotive and extensively covered at the time, it is now considered a minor topic in the election process.
Reported by Noele Illien and Cecile Mantovani; Additional reporting by Oliver Hirt; Edited by Tomasz Janowski
