In Iowa this month, Donald Trump rallies have resembled those from his 2016 campaign, with fervent supporters cheering on a combative and grievance-filled stump speech. However, there are key differences compared to the previous election. Trump now has a much more sophisticated ground game, focusing on collecting and analyzing voter data to convert it into votes. Winning convincingly in Iowa’s Jan. 15 contest would strengthen the narrative that he is a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Interviews with party leaders, Trump staff, and campaign volunteers in Iowa reveal the lessons learned from past mistakes. In 2016, Trump had a minimal presence in the state and was out-organized by Senator Ted Cruz, resulting in his loss at the Republican nominating contest in Iowa. But this time, Trump has developed a ground game that is five or six times larger than before, according to Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party.
At his eighth Iowa rally in just over a month, Trump uses the well-attended events to identify and communicate with voters and volunteers. Attendees are greeted with giant screens displaying caucus information, emphasizing the importance of voting. These rallies are valuable for organizing lists, considering the Iowa caucuses involve over 1,600 local party meetings held across the state.
While Trump focuses on population centers representing two-thirds of the vote, his closest rival for the nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has assembled a larger operation, including out-of-state volunteers, to campaign in rural areas. However, Trump holds an advantage in Iowa due to his ability to mine voter information from past rallies and donations.
By gathering contact information from attendees like Ann Jones, who has never caucused before but plans to volunteer and attend with her husband, the campaign can now engage with potential supporters. In 2016, Trump lacked the staffing and infrastructure to follow up with leads, causing many supporters to stay home on caucus night.
The campaign’s data operation has thus far obtained 37,500 caucus pledges, facilitating follow-up contact through various methods. Through this effort, Trump has enlisted 1,800 volunteers and enough precinct captains to cover 1,050 precincts, aiming to eventually reach nearly all 1,700 precincts in Iowa.
Although the numbers may not be as substantial as those of DeSantis, the Trump campaign believes it has attracted a more passionate group of Iowa residents. Volunteers, like Cris Christenson, a business owner and precinct captain trainee, urge their fellow supporters to stay motivated and give their all.
DeSantis has shifted one-third of his staff to Iowa and invested $2 million in TV ads for the caucuses, hoping to revive his campaign. However, he trails Trump by a significant margin both nationally and in Iowa polls.
Trump has also expanded his operation in Iowa, hiring a dedicated person to connect with pastors and Christian leaders, a crucial demographic in a state where evangelicals comprised a majority of Republican caucus-goers in 2016. Despite criticism from challengers regarding his remarks on abortion, Trump’s support among evangelicals remains strong.
Overall, Trump’s campaign in Iowa has demonstrated a greater organizational effort compared to 2016. By leveraging voter data, engaging with supporters, and expanding staff, Trump aims to secure a convincing victory and solidify his path to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Adel, Iowa; Editing by Ross Colvin and Daniel Wallis)
