President Tayyip Erdogan and his party suffered a significant blow in Turkey’s local elections as the opposition emerged as a strong political force and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu solidified his position as Erdogan’s main rival. With the majority of votes counted, Imamoglu held a 10-point lead in the mayoral race in Istanbul, while the Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained control of Ankara and secured 15 other mayoral seats in cities across the country. This marked Erdogan and the AK Party’s worst electoral defeat in over two decades and indicated a possible shift in Turkey’s political landscape. In a post-midnight address, Erdogan acknowledged the results as a “turning point.”
The analysts attributed the unexpected results to factors such as high inflation, dissatisfied Islamist voters, and Imamoglu’s appeal beyond the CHP’s traditional support base in Istanbul. Imamoglu, 53, addressed cheering supporters and emphasized the message sent by the nation through the election results. He expressed that those who fail to understand this message will eventually lose, highlighting the significance of the outcome. Imamoglu, a former businessman turned politician, is now being viewed as a potential presidential contender, given his strong showing in the election.
Erdogan, who had campaigned vigorously ahead of the municipal elections, acknowledged the decline in his alliance’s support across the country. He assured the public that steps would be taken to address the concerns raised by voters and pledged to rectify any mistakes made by his party. Meanwhile, thousands of Ankara residents celebrated the victory of Mansur Yavas from the CHP as he defeated his AKP challenger in another setback for Erdogan’s party.
In Istanbul, Imamoglu secured 50.92% of the votes compared to the AKP challenger’s 40.05%, based on 92.92% of ballots counted. This victory came as a surprise to many, as polls had indicated a close race in Istanbul and potential losses for the CHP in other parts of the country. The results also showed that the CHP had a slight lead in the overall nationwide votes, a first in 35 years according to official reports from the state-run Anadolu Agency.
Mert Arslanalp, a political science professor, described the election outcome as Erdogan’s most severe defeat since coming to power in 2002. Imamoglu’s ability to bridge the deep-seated socio-political divisions within Turkey’s opposition electorate without institutional support has positioned him as Erdogan’s most formidable political opponent. This sets the stage for a potentially competitive rivalry between the two figures.
IMAMOGLU’S RISE
In 2019, Imamoglu ended AKP’s 25-year rule in Istanbul, along with securing victory in Ankara, marking a significant electoral setback for Erdogan. However, Erdogan bounced back in 2023, winning reelection and a parliamentary majority despite ongoing economic challenges. The economic strain, including high inflation and slow growth, influenced voters to penalize the AKP in the recent elections. Analysts emphasized the role of the economy in driving the desire for change among the Turkish electorate, with Imamoglu emerging as Erdogan’s primary opponent.
Erdogan predicted that the conclusion of two election cycles within a year would provide relief for the economy. Supporters in Istanbul expressed their admiration for Imamoglu and voiced hopes of seeing him challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future. The rise in popular support for the Islamist New Welfare Party, which adopted a more hardline stance against Israel, also impacted AKP’s standing. Imamoglu’s reelection, despite the disintegration of the opposition alliance from the previous year, showcased his enduring appeal to voters.
Although the pro-Kurdish party fielded its own candidate in Istanbul this time, many Kurds chose to support Imamoglu again, underscoring his broader appeal across different segments of the population. In the southeast, the pro-Kurdish party maintained its strong showing, winning in 10 provinces. However, incidents of violence marred the election day, including clashes leading to casualties and heightened tensions in certain regions.
Despite the challenges and disruptions, Imamoglu’s victory and the opposition’s success in various municipalities signal a significant shift in Turkish politics and pose a formidable challenge to Erdogan’s tenure. The election results reflect the growing discontent with the ruling party and the emergence of Imamoglu as a credible alternative to Erdogan’s leadership.
Overall, the local elections in Turkey have reshaped the political landscape and highlighted the increasing competition between Erdogan and Imamoglu. As both sides regroup and strategize following the electoral outcome, the future of Turkish politics remains uncertain yet filled with newfound possibilities and challenges.
