On Thursday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a drop in agricultural futures, with wheat leading the decline. The most active corn contract for December delivery fell 8 cents, or 1.68 percent, to settle at 4.68 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat also saw a significant drop, plummeting 11.5 cents, or 1.94 percent, to settle at 5.8075 dollars per bushel. January soybean lost 22.25 cents, or 1.63 percent, to settle at 13.435 dollars per bushel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture November Crop report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report are viewed as modestly bearish as U.S. corn, wheat and soybean stocks were increased slightly. U.S. corn end stocks were raised to 2,156 million bushels. Corn production is now pegged at 15,234 million bushels.
The report also raised U.S. soybean yield forecast to 49.9 bushels per acre (BPA), as against 49.6 BPA previously. U.S. soybean production was raised 25 million bushels, and U.S. stocks were increased to 245 million bushels.
U.S. wheat end stocks were increased to 670 million bushels amid larger projected imports and a modest reduction in food disappearance. U.S. wheat exports were left unchanged. Meanwhile, globally, corn end stocks were increased by 2.6 million metric tons to 315 million metric tons. Global soybean end stocks were lowered by 1.1 million metric tons to 114.5 million metric tons amid reduced 2023-2024 carrying and a modest increase in combined domestic use and import demand. Combined Ukrainian and Russian corn production was raised by 2.9 million metric tons.
Global wheat end stocks were increased by 0.6 million metric tons to 258.7 million metric tons. Russian wheat production was raised a sizable 5 million metric tons to 90 million metric tons, and combined exporter wheat stocks were increased 3.4 million metric tons to 56.4 million metric tons. Argentine wheat output was lowered 1.5 million metric tons, and Indian 2023-2024 wheat stocks were lowered 3 million metric tons to 11 million metric tons.
In addition to these changes, complete dryness and exceptional heat are forecast across the northern two-thirds of Brazil’s agricultural belt into Nov. 20. As market focus shifts completely to South American weather, the Chicago-based research company AgResource holds that weather-based volatility lies ahead.
