U.S. agricultural futures fall

CHICAGO, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) — According to reports from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), agricultural futures dropped, with corn leading the decline.

The most active corn contract, scheduled for delivery in March, fell 10.75 cents or 2.35 percent, settling at 4.47 U.S. dollars per bushel. March wheat also experienced a decrease, falling by 7.75 cents or 1.28 percent, settling at 5.96 dollars per bushel. In addition, March soybeans lost 12.25 cents or 0.99 percent, settling at 12.2425 dollars per bushel.

This drop was attributed to the bearish U.S. Department of Agriculture January Crop Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report. The data from these reports revealed that U.S. combined 2023-2024 corn, soybean, and wheat stocks had increased by 55 million bushels, with corn up by 31 million bushels, soybeans up by 35 million bushels, and wheat down by 11 million bushels. One of the most surprising findings was the larger 2023 U.S. corn and soybean yields, along with the addition of 12 million metric tons to world grain stocks, which added to the bearish outlook.

The report also showed a record high U.S. corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre (BPA) and a record large corn crop of 15.34 billion bushels. Additionally, U.S. corn demand was adjusted upwards by 75 million bushels, resulting in an end stock of 2,162 million bushels. The report indicated an additional 15-25 cents of downside price risk, projecting that March corn futures could drop to 4.30-4.40 dollars.

World corn stocks also saw an increase of 10 million metric tons, rising to 325 million metric tons.

The 2023 U.S. soybean yield was raised by 0.7 BPA, resulting in a total crop increase to 4,165 million bushels, up 24 million bushels from November. Despite this, U.S. soybean demand remained unchanged, leading to an increase in 2023-2024 stocks to 280 million bushels.

In addition, the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop was lowered by 4 million metric tons to 157 million metric tons, while Argentina’s soybean crop was raised by 2 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons. World 2023-2024 soybean end stocks remained steady at 114 million metric tons.

The report also trimmed 2023-2024 U.S. wheat carryover by 12 million bushels and reduced 2023-2024 U.S. wheat end stocks to 648 million bushels.

EU wheat end stocks were lifted by 2.5 million metric tons due to larger imports and lower exports, while world wheat stocks rose by 2 million metric tons to 260 million metric tons.

Finally, attention has turned to Brazilian soybean yield data in the coming weeks. According to Chicago-based research company AgResource, this is not a favorable time for new sales.