LONDON, (Reuters) – Russia’s confidence in its conventional forces has been shaken due to the war in Ukraine, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said on Monday. This has led Moscow to place greater importance on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as a means of deterring and defeating NATO in a potential future conflict. NSNWs refer to nuclear weapons with a range of up to 5,500 km (3,400 miles), including tactical arms designed for use on the battlefield.
The report raised concerns about Russia’s potential willingness to use NSNWs, considering the perceived lack of Western resolve to deliver a nuclear response. It suggested that Russia might attempt to escalate a conflict in a controlled manner, either to prevent the US and NATO from engaging, or to coerce them into war termination on Russian terms.
While Moscow has denied wielding nuclear threats, President Vladimir Putin’s statements have been interpreted as such in the West. Despite his warnings, the U.S. and NATO have continued to provide military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weapons systems that were previously unthinkable.
Putin has resisted calls to alter Russia’s stated doctrine, which allows for nuclear use in the event of “aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened”. However, he has shifted Russia’s stance on key nuclear treaties and announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Western analysts and policymakers have been monitoring a debate among Russian military experts about whether Moscow should lower its threshold for nuclear use. This discussion arises from Russia’s failure to decisively win the Ukraine war, leading to fears of further emboldening the U.S. and its allies.
Alberque, author of the IISS report, stated that Western intelligence would be able to detect signs of Russia preparing to launch a NSNW, including the movement of weapons and conventional strikes near the planned target area. He also highlighted the difficulty of containing escalation once the nuclear threshold is crossed, posing a significant challenge for U.S. planners.
Overall, the report underscores the growing significance of NSNWs in Russia’s military strategy, as well as the complexities and risks associated with the potential use of these weapons in future conflicts.
