Venezuelans vote in opposition primary clouded by uncertainty

Venezuelans are set to vote in a primary on Sunday to select a unified opposition candidate who will run against President Nicolas Maduro in next year’s probable re-election bid. The United States has threatened to reverse the sanctions relief if the government does not lift the bans preventing certain opposition figures from holding office. Maria Corina Machado, a 56-year-old industrial engineer and former lawmaker, has been leading her rivals by a significant margin in the polls. However, Machado, along with two former rivals who withdrew from the race, is disqualified from public office due to her support for the sanctions on Maduro’s government.

During this week, the opposition and government signed an agreement on some election guarantees, including the presence of international observers. The deal allows each side to select its candidate according to internal rules but does not revoke the election disqualifications. In response to the agreement, the United States eased Trump-era sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas, and bonds. However, the US has given Maduro until the end of November to reverse the bans, release political prisoners, and “wrongfully detained” Americans.

Although five individuals have been released, lead government negotiator Jorge Rodriguez confirmed that those with disqualifications will be unable to run in the upcoming 2024 contest, slated for the second half of the year. Some members of the opposition are skeptical about Maduro fulfilling the terms of the deal. The opposition argues that the disqualifications are unlawful but has not disclosed its course of action if Machado wins the primary but cannot compete in 2024. Machado, whose objective is to remove Maduro through a fair and peaceful vote, has suggested that she could exert pressure on electoral authorities to allow her registration. Maduro, though not officially announcing his re-election bid, is widely expected to run.

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Others believe that selecting an alternative candidate would be necessary, but it remains uncertain whether the often-fractious opposition would accept Machado’s choice of a replacement. Approximately 20 million voters in Venezuela can participate in the primary, which is being organized independently without state assistance. Ten candidates, including former lawmakers Carlos Prosperi and Delsa Solorzano, will be competing. A total of 3,010 locations, including private homes, have been designated as polling places. Additionally, Venezuelan migrants residing in 28 countries will be able to vote at designated voting centers. It is estimated that around 4 million Venezuelans living abroad are of voting age.