(Reuters) – A Russian official visited Libya to reassure allies that fighters from the Wagner Group would remain in the country under Moscow’s control. The visit occurred a day before the plane crash that killed mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov informed eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar that Wagner forces would report to a new commander, according to a Libyan official.
Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya researcher from the Royal United Services Institute, stated that the timing of Yevkurov’s visit suggests that the Russian presence in Libya could potentially expand rather than decrease. This meeting took place following a failed mutiny by Prigozhin and Wagner forces against Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. It indicates that Moscow intends to maintain the global network established by the mercenary group.
The fate of the Wagner Group, along with the complex web of military and commercial operations created by Prigozhin, now hangs in the balance following his death. Wagner has been involved in major battles in Ukraine and has fought in civil wars and insurgencies in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali. The group has also gained control of gold mines and oil fields along the way.
After the mutiny, Wagner forces in Syria were disbanded, and the Ukrainian forces handed over a base to Russia’s regular military. They are currently relocating to an army camp in Belarus, although the exact number of personnel is unknown. In Africa, Wagner may continue to exist under new management or be absorbed by another Russian mercenary group. Its ability to operate in areas where Moscow lacks formal or legal presence makes it an important tool for Kremlin foreign policy.
John Lechner, a U.S.-based researcher writing a book about Prigozhin, believes that Wagner will try to maintain a sense of normalcy to uphold its credibility as a business. He emphasized that there are existing contracts and obligations that need to be fulfilled. Prigozhin had been actively expanding Wagner’s presence in Africa, and his death may have disrupted those plans.
Analysts predict that in countries where Wagner operates with official Moscow agreements, there may not be significant changes in the short term. In Libya, Wagner forces have been assisting Haftar’s faction since 2019 and have provided security for military and oil installations. As Russia does not have an official military role in Libya due to a U.N. arms embargo, any involvement would have to be through Wagner or a similar group.
Regarding Wagner’s presence in the Central African Republic (CAR), Fidele Gouandjika, President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s political advisor, stated that Prigozhin’s death would not affect the presence of Wagner instructors. He added that Prigozhin can be replaced as a leader. However, the uncertainty surrounding Wagner’s future in Africa presents risks for the involved countries, according to political analyst Ousmane Pare from Burkina Faso.
The fate of Wagner’s economic assets, such as Evro Polis, a company reportedly owned by the group with oil assets in Syria, remains uncertain. Additionally, the details regarding their mining and logging businesses in the CAR and other African countries are limited. It would be challenging to bring these assets under direct Russian control or transfer them to another contractor.
Angus McDowall, the author of this Reuters article, collected information from various sources and reported from different locations, including Libya, Tblisi, Dakar, Bangui, Ouagadougou, Bamako, and Amman.
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