POLITICAL chatter these days pretty much turns on the same sorts of questions: is Donald Trump likely to win the GOP (Grand Old Party, as Republican Party is also referred to) nomination? Will Joe Biden be the Democrat nominee? If Trump wins the nomination, can he beat Biden?
Those are all varying degrees of “yes.” The more interesting question: How much of a chance do Trump’s primary challengers have of beating him? The answer is obviously different for each challenger. But it seems that the field is currently separated into a couple of tiers: a small group that has a chance to beat Trump, a larger tier that doesn’t, and one candidate that doesn’t fit neatly into any box.
Top tier
Challengers Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott stand out as the strongest, each for a different reason.
DeSantis has positioned himself as the “closest thing to Trump, but without the scandals. He is also a successful governor of a large state, in a party that used to look to proven leaders like that as its standard-bearer.
Nikki Haley presents herself as the next generation, a woman, with a lot of the Trump economic and social policies but also a neo-conservative worldview. This could resonate well with GOP voters seeking the next Reagan or Bush.
Tim Scott offers something different. He brings optimism, positivity, encouragement, and unity, and represents a very conservative Republican version of “hope and change.” If GOP voters prioritize patriotism and healing over animosity towards the Left, Scott has a real chance.
Also-rans
This category includes the rest of the candidates: Vivek Ramaswamy, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, Larry Elder, Francis Suarez, Ryan Binkley, and Will Hurd, none of whom are seen as having a real chance. Former Vice President Mike Pence, unfortunately overshadowed by the events of January 6, 2021, is also likely part of this group. Despite his achievements, MAGA voters have turned against him, and it’s highly unlikely they would ever warm to Pence. The strength and longevity of Trump’s character assassination have left a lasting impact.
Chris Christie
The former New Jersey governor appears singularly focused, not necessarily on winning, but on taking down Trump. — AP
Chris Christie deserves a category of his own. He seems singularly focused on taking down Trump rather than winning himself, and he possesses a unique set of attributes for this role.
Unlike Tim Scott, who is known for his amiable demeanor, Christie is not afraid to attack the former president. Christie’s brand of blue-collar common sense and blunt NJ style is a combination that Trump has never confronted. Perhaps Christie can highlight Trump’s flaws in a way that resonates with MAGA voters.
While Christie may not become the nominee, he might be the one who prevents Trump from winning. It’s important to note that Trump is still the favorite to win the GOP nomination. Due to the delegate allocation system, Trump is likely to secure the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination, even if he doesn’t secure the majority of votes. Trump’s plurality in a multi-person race will give him a significant share of the delegates, as many states operate under winner-take-all or similar systems.
The conventional wisdom, which wrongly predicted Trump’s defeat in 2016, now claims that Trump cannot lose. However, all it takes is for one of the current challengers to prove these predictions wrong. — The Charlotte Observer/TNS
Mick Mulvaney served as former President Donald Trump’s Acting Chief of Staff from January 2019 to March 2020.
Credit: The Star : News Feed
