PETALING JAYA: Climatologists have warned that the country will experience higher readings of the Air Pollutant Index (API) until October 4th due to transboundary haze from neighboring Indonesia. They attribute this to the occurrence of El Nino and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD), which have led to drier weather compared to previous years. Experts also warn that those who were unable to clear their land through open burning in the past may do so in larger quantities this year. On Friday, several areas on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia already recorded unhealthy API readings. However, it is possible for local weather influences, such as changes in wind patterns and occasional rain, to lower API values in Malaysia.
According to climate expert Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah, Malaysians should expect new particulates from hotspots in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia to be blown in by the wind, even after the rain washes away existing particulates. He emphasizes that the haze will continue until October 4th with variations in concentration due to local influences. Azizan considers the haze to be a major disaster caused by deliberate human actions and not accidental forest fires. He notes that this year’s pattern is similar to 2019’s, with the influence of El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) causing drier conditions in Sumatra.
Azizan suggests that the situation could change if there is rainfall in Sumatra to put out the fire or if the Northeast Monsoon arrives in late October. He advises individuals with respiratory and cardiovascular comorbidities, especially the elderly and young children, to minimize outdoor activities and stay indoors, as even the smallest particulates can enter the lungs. Azizan highlights that the conditions in Sumatra, which were too wet for land clearing in the past two years due to La Nina, are now drier, leading to delayed clearance being done with greater intensity this year.
Academy of Sciences Malaysia Fellow Dr Fredolin Tangang confirms that El Nino is currently active and strengthening, possibly falling under the moderate to strong category. He suggests that if El Nino continues to follow a typical progression, Malaysia and Indonesia will experience its impact until next April or May. Concurrently, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) is also developing. Dr Tangang’s research indicates that Sumatra and Kalimantan will face anomalously dry conditions during the El Nino event from September to November.
Dr Tangang explains that the +IOD can worsen the dry conditions caused by El Nino, potentially triggering forest fires and transboundary haze. He points out that during the southwest monsoon, transboundary haze can be worse as smoke from Sumatra is blown towards Malaysia. However, with the current inter-monsoon period, weak winds from the south may reduce the likelihood of severe transboundary haze. Nevertheless, it is challenging to predict weather patterns, and the wind may still blow from the south during this period.
Dr Tangang further warns that if typhoons occur in the Philippines and South China Sea in the coming weeks, air masses could flow northwards from Sumatra and Kalimantan, increasing the likelihood of transboundary haze. He also notes that beyond November, transboundary haze from Sumatra and Kalimantan is less likely as both regions tend to experience positive rainfall anomalies and winds blowing from the north. However, from December to March, Sabah and northern Sarawak may face drier conditions during El Nino, potentially leading to local forest fires and haze.
Credit: The Star : News Feed
