PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s population stability at risk in coming decades
Women, Family and Community Development Minister Datuk Seri Nancy Shukri cautioned that Malaysia’s population may plummet and take a U-turn in the next 50 years unless the nation’s declining fertility rate stabilizes. She recently commented that the population could dwindle by 2072 after reaching an anticipated high of 46 million people in 2071. The minister warned that if the fertility rate continues to decline and no action is taken, this scenario could become a reality. According to a United Nations report, Malaysia, along with many other countries, is facing the potential of a population drop in the future. The UN World Population Prospects 2022 report, released in July last year, suggests that Malaysia’s population may peak at 42.2 million in 2067 and then decline to 39.5 million by 2100. Currently, Malaysia’s population is estimated at 33.4 million, according to the Statistics Department.
“Based on the projections, the total population of this country will shrink at some point before it reaches 50 million,” said Chai Sen Tyng, a senior research officer at UPM’s Malaysian Research Institute on Ageing (MyAgeing). “We have been telling people Malaysia’s population will never hit 50 million and we are betting the odds on it due to our falling fertility rate.”
Malaysia’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, has dropped to a 50-year low of 1.6, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1. Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin, Chief Statistician, stated that the TFR has been below the replacement level since 2013, positing potential implications such as population decline, an older population, and socioeconomic challenges. Correspondingly, life expectancy has risen to 73.4 years, further contributing to an aging population.
“A rising life expectancy, combined with declining fertility, is the root cause of our aging population,” said Chai. Older nations with low fertility rates, such as Japan and China, are experiencing population declines. Japan’s population decreased by 800,000 last year as its fertility rate hit 1.26, the lowest in 17 years. China also witnessed a population downturn, the first in six decades, as its birth rate declined to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people. Based on current fertility rate trends, the UN’s data indicates that many countries in Asean, including Malaysia, could confront population declines in the ensuing decades.
Chai suggested that projections spanning decades can be precarious but emphasized the potential accuracy due to a significant fall in fertility rates. The Statistics Department projects that Malaysia will become an aging nation by 2030 and the population aged 60 years and over surpasses 15% of the total. The World Bank contends that Malaysia crossed this threshold in 2020, the year when the share of the country’s population aged 65 and above reached 7%. According to the World Bank, Malaysia is anticipated to transition to an aged society in 2044 and will become a super-aged nation in 2056.
“Rapid aging will be one of the most crucial megatrends affecting Malaysia in coming decades, raising policy challenges in areas such as employment, income security, health care, and aged care,” the report said.
Hawati Abdul Hamid, deputy director of research at Khazanah Research Institute (KRI), highlighted the need for a universal social pension to provide basic old-age income security. Goh Lim Thye from Universiti Malaya proposed encouraging older citizens to work longer to help mitigate the economic impact of an aging population. Also, financial literacy programs could help individuals plan for retirement more effectively, according to Goh. However, failure to prepare for an aging population could lead to a surge in healthcare costs, putting pressure on the healthcare system and government budgets, warned Hawati.
